What should a leader do?
Predicting the future is never easy. All major corporations and nations devote substantial efforts towards devising processes and technologies that assist in managing information and knowledge, and to help understand the future. The more accurately one can grasp the emerging world; the better one can plan and choose the course.
A related debate has to with if deductive or inductive reasoning better for this task. Furthermore, whether the right or left-brain people more suited at seeing patterns and trends and provide the clues about what is coming. One of the key shortcoming in this regard is that human operates from what is known. While new discoveries give further credence to the fact that there is a lot we do not know. Even the best-developed models can be thrown off by a single anomaly, as the proponents of chaos theory would claim.
A lot also depends on the assumptions and frame of reference being used to grasp a given reality. Now a day’s, media plays an important role in framing peoples’ perceptions about what that may be. Despite the limitations, the worse mistake is not to have predicted wrongly, but to have not even made indigenous attempts to understand the future. In absence of this effort, one is prone in believing what others may conceive.
For more than a decade now, the politics of Pakistan has been disproportionately impacted by the war on terror. In addition to widespread corruption and poor governance, this has caused economic stagnation and the energy crisis. In other words, the internal and external problems of the country have become linked. The nation cannot walk away from the war on terror, and the more it stays involved; its economic and security situation worsens further.
For example, two prominent thoughts have emerged about where Pakistan is heading in the US. One of them presents a pessimistic and damning view that the nation is gradually spinning out of control, extremism is spreading, and the point of no return is approaching quickly. The scholars with this view are often older and have been dealing with affairs of Pakistan for an extended period of time. One senses exasperation in their demeanor. It appears to be an after effect of having dealt with the complex Afghanistan situation and the difficult Pakistan-India relations, and to make sense of it in the context of war on terror. - See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/08/comment/columns/predicting-pakistans-elections/#sthash.kA51kYYo.dpuf
What should a leader do?
Predicting the future is never easy. All major corporations and nations devote substantial efforts towards devising processes and technologies that assist in managing information and knowledge, and to help understand the future. The more accurately one can grasp the emerging world; the better one can plan and choose the course.
A related debate has to with if deductive or inductive reasoning better for this task. Furthermore, whether the right or left-brain people more suited at seeing patterns and trends and provide the clues about what is coming. One of the key shortcoming in this regard is that human operates from what is known. While new discoveries give further credence to the fact that there is a lot we do not know. Even the best-developed models can be thrown off by a single anomaly, as the proponents of chaos theory would claim.
A lot also depends on the assumptions and frame of reference being used to grasp a given reality. Now a day’s, media plays an important role in framing peoples’ perceptions about what that may be. Despite the limitations, the worse mistake is not to have predicted wrongly, but to have not even made indigenous attempts to understand the future. In absence of this effort, one is prone in believing what others may conceive.
For more than a decade now, the politics of Pakistan has been disproportionately impacted by the war on terror. In addition to widespread corruption and poor governance, this has caused economic stagnation and the energy crisis. In other words, the internal and external problems of the country have become linked. The nation cannot walk away from the war on terror, and the more it stays involved; its economic and security situation worsens further.
For example, two prominent thoughts have emerged about where Pakistan is heading in the US. One of them presents a pessimistic and damning view that the nation is gradually spinning out of control, extremism is spreading, and the point of no return is approaching quickly. The scholars with this view are often older and have been dealing with affairs of Pakistan for an extended period of time. One senses exasperation in their demeanor. It appears to be an after effect of having dealt with the complex Afghanistan situation and the difficult Pakistan-India relations, and to make sense of it in the context of war on terror. - See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/08/comment/columns/predicting-pakistans-elections/#sthash.kA51kYYo.dpuf
Predicting the future is never easy. All major corporations and nations devote substantial efforts towards devising processes and technologies that assist in managing information and knowledge, and to help understand the future. The more accurately one can grasp the emerging world; the better one can plan and choose the course.
A related debate has to with if deductive or inductive reasoning better for this task. Furthermore, whether the right or left-brain people more suited at seeing patterns and trends and provide the clues about what is coming. One of the key shortcoming in this regard is that human operates from what is known. While new discoveries give further credence to the fact that there is a lot we do not know. Even the best-developed models can be thrown off by a single anomaly, as the proponents of chaos theory would claim.
A lot also depends on the assumptions and frame of reference being used to grasp a given reality. Now a day’s, media plays an important role in framing peoples’ perceptions about what that may be. Despite the limitations, the worse mistake is not to have predicted wrongly, but to have not even made indigenous attempts to understand the future. In absence of this effort, one is prone in believing what others may conceive.
For more than a decade now, the politics of Pakistan has been disproportionately impacted by the war on terror. In addition to widespread corruption and poor governance, this has caused economic stagnation and the energy crisis. In other words, the internal and external problems of the country have become linked. The nation cannot walk away from the war on terror, and the more it stays involved; its economic and security situation worsens further.
For example, two prominent thoughts have emerged about where Pakistan is heading in the US. One of them presents a pessimistic and damning view that the nation is gradually spinning out of control, extremism is spreading, and the point of no return is approaching quickly. The scholars with this view are often older and have been dealing with affairs of Pakistan for an extended period of time. One senses exasperation in their demeanor. It appears to be an after effect of having dealt with the complex Afghanistan situation and the difficult Pakistan-India relations, and to make sense of it in the context of war on terror. - See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/08/comment/columns/predicting-pakistans-elections/#sthash.kA51kYYo.dpuf
